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Forex Trading Strategies Reddit: What you need to know to start Forex trading.
What are FOREX Strategies? https://preview.redd.it/ihmphstzguv51.jpg?width=960&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=81f6b73c367d8695605514f8d32aaf3e2aeabc6e You may have noticed that most of people confuse the terminology and refer to FOREX Strategies in the wrong way. There are methodologies, systems, strategies, and techniques. The most effective methodology is Price Language (Trend Tracking). Combined with a correct reading of mass psychology presented by the charts. We know that in the Stock Markets there are thousands of strategies. FOREX, like the rest of the markets, presents you with the opportunity to apply similar strategies to win consistently. Taking advantage of repetitive psychological patterns. First, the Price Language methodology has created great fortunes in FOREX, and the next fortune may be yours. But this methodology must be implemented within a framework of advanced concepts of Markets. Without forgetting the basics. And working hard day by day. Second, a strategy is a set of parameters and techniques that together give you the advantage to act in any situation. Thus for example in war, generals have attack strategies and counterattack strategies. FOREX strategies alike are entry strategies and exit strategies. All beginners should know these FOREX strategies for beginners. That way you will get a general idea of the game and understand that trading is a war against the Market and its Specialists. Only applying FOREX strategies revealed by the same Specialists and using their own techniques, ... you can survive in this war. Do not fall into the trap of the many "systems" and "methods" that are offered on the internet about operating in the FOREX Market. They just don't work in the long run. They are strategies based on indicators for the most part. Using rigid parameters. That if they can work and give profitability during a certain period of time, they will always reach a breaking point when the market changes its dynamics. Instead, take advantage of your precious time and learn the Language of Price or Price Action. The Language methodology will allow you to adapt to each new phase of the Market. If you combine this knowledge with the appropriate psychological concepts, you can live comfortably from speculation in FOREX.
You have two basic FOREX strategies, one entry, and one exit. Both follow a general strategy that helps you capitalize on the collective behaviors of the Market. That is, of the total of participating speculators. This behavior causes the formation of cycles that repeat over and over again. Driven by the basic emotions (uncertainty, greed, and panic) of the speculators involved that can be taken advantage of with the aforementioned FOREX strategies. Specialists identify these emotions in the order flow and capitalize on these events every hour, every day, and every month. Basic FOREX Strategies - The Price Cycle These repetitive cycles consist of 4 phases:
https://preview.redd.it/6dvk2w0pduv51.png?width=300&format=png&auto=webp&s=a3ab65ca4eab6d20174b3327b862d8b59dcc13b7 The two trends can be easily identified by their notorious breakdown. And the two areas of uncertainty (accumulation and distribution), due to their notorious range trajectories. This general behavior determines the core of our FOREX strategies. You buy when the price of a pair has broken and has come out of one of its congestion formations (accumulation or distribution). You implement one of the Forex strategies, in this case, the entry one. The multi-time technique will help you find the point of least risk when entering your initial buy or sell order. In the same way and using the same strategy but this time to close your position, the multiple timing technique will also show you how to close your operation obtaining the highest possible profit. The most consistent way to extract profits in the market is by trading the start of trends within a cycle . Once confirmed by their respective breaks from the areas of uncertainty. This is the mother of all FOREX strategies . And in a market that operates 24 hours, we have more frequent cycles and therefore more opportunities.
There are many advanced FOREX strategies that are generally used by professional speculators working for large financial firms. Among these firms are banks, Investment Fund managers and Hedge Fund managers. The latter is an investment modality similar to Investment Funds, with the difference that Hedge Funds use more complex investment strategies. Its operations are more oriented to aggressive speculations in the short and medium-term. Among the most common strategies is hedging (hedging), carry trade, automated systems based on quantum mathematics. And a large number of combinations between the different option strategies.
The Carry Trade
The central idea of Carry Trade is to buy a pair in which the base currency has a considerably higher interest rate than the quoted currency. To earn the difference in rates regardless of whether the price of the pair rises or falls. Suppose we buy a $ 100,000 lot of AUDJPY, which according to the rates on the chart would turn out to be the ideal instrument in this example to use the Forex carry trade strategy. As our capital is in US dollars we have to assume for our example, the following quotes necessary to perform the place calculations: AUD / JPY = 80.00 USD / JPY = 85.00 What happens internally in your broker is this.
By placing as collateral $ 1,000 of your $ 50,000 of capital (assumed for this example), deposited in your account, you have access to $ 100,000 virtual (this is what is known as leverage); that is, you put in $ 1,000 and your broker lends you 99,000.
With those $ 100,000 virtual dollars, your broker borrows on your behalf ¥ 8,500,000 Japanese yen (85 × 100,000) at 0.1% annual interest from a Japanese bank.
With those ¥ 8,500,000 Japanese yen, your broker buys A $ 106,250 Australian dollars (8,500,000 / 80) and deposits it in an Australian bank where it receives 4.5% annual interest on your behalf.
One year later (and regardless of the profit or loss generated by the pair's movement), your profit will be the difference between the AUD rate and the JPY rate, that is:
Profit = (AUD rate) - (JPY rate) - (costs of the 2 currency exchanges) Profit = (4.5%) - (0.1%) - (0.1% to 1%) The great advantage of carry trade FOREX strategies is that this percentage profit is applied to the $ 100,000 of the standard lot; the broker transfers all of the profit to you, even if you only contributed $ 1,000. On the other hand, if you carry out the inverse of this operation, this benefit of the Forex carry trade becomes a cost (swap), and you assume it completely. Remember that FOREX carry trade strategies are recommended for pairs with considerable interest rate differences, such as the one we have just seen in our example. These FOREX strategies should also not be used in isolation. The idea is that through technical analysis you identify when would be the ideal time to enter the market using your carry trade Forex strategy and multiply your profits considerably.
What FOREX Strategies Do Hedge Funds Use?
The FOREX strategies used by large fund managers do not constitute an advantage in terms of percentage results for them, nor do they constitute a competitive disadvantage for you. The vast majority of them fail because of their big egos. In fact, there was a firm made up of great financial geniuses, including 2 winners of the Nobel Prize in Economics, who developed a strategy based on quantum mathematical calculations. With an initial base capital of about 3 billion dollars, and after 3 successful years obtaining annual returns of over 40%, the firm Long-Term Capital Management, begins its fourth year with losses. To counteract these losses the geniuses decide to multiply the initial capital several times, while the losses continued. The year closed with the bankruptcy of the fund, and with a total accumulated loss of 1 trillion dollars, due to the great leverage used. And all for not admitting that the FOREX Strategies of Long Term Capital Management were not in line with the dynamics of the Market. There are an overwhelming number of opportunities in the stock markets to make money interpreting the Language of Price. You don't need to use complex "advanced" strategies that have been created to handle hundreds or billions of dollars. The reasons for using these FOREX strategies are very different from what a "retail trader" pursues with his small speculation business. As you can see, you should not worry about wanting to integrate any of these advanced strategies into your arsenal. They are only beneficial for managing hundreds or billions of dollars, where the return parameters are very different when you handle small amounts of capital. Do not worry about collecting hundreds of free FOREX strategies that circulate on the internet, that great accumulation of mediocre information will only serve to confuse you and waste your valuable time. Spend that time learning Price Action, … And you will always be one step behind the Specialists, identifying each new Market condition, and anticipating the vast majority of reversals of all prices. Ironically, the most successful fund managers indicate that their most profitable trades are those based on the basic trend-following strategies of the Price Language. The same ones that you will learn in this Free Course. Dedicate yourself to perfecting them and believe me you won't need anything else. As long as you have good risk management, taking into consideration the following points ...
Styles of Investments in FOREX
The Investment FOREX long term is not recommended for small investors like you and me. If we take into account the term investing literally as large investors do who buy a financial product today to sell it years later. We both have a better niche in the short and medium-term. You may have noticed that the big multi-year trends in the Forex Market do exist. But minor swings within a big trend are usually very wide. These minor movements allow us to easily double and triple the annual return of the big general trend, motivating most traders to speculate in the short and medium-term. These minor oscillations or trends that occur within the large multi-year trends owe their occurrence mainly to two reasons. First, the FOREX Market presents 3 sessions a day each in different cities of the world with different time zones (Asia, Europe, and America). This causes more frequent trend changes than in the rest of the stock markets. Second, the purpose for which it was created also plays a role. The modern Foreign Exchange Market, since its inception in 1972, was conceived by the global financial system as a tool for speculation. To obtain benefits in the short and medium-term (from several days to 1 year). These two points are basically the reasons why we observe the immense speed with which the FOREX market changes trends. For example, for those who live in America, in the early morning (Europe) the EURUSD pair may be on the rise, in the morning or afternoon (America) it may be down, and then finally at night (Asia) it may return to the rise.
Define your Own Style for your FOREX Investments
One of the first decisions you will have to make is to choose your style as a trader or investor. There are 4 types of well-defined styles. Most professional traders tend to have multiple styles, although they always identify with one primary style for their FOREX investments. Study the characteristics of the 4 main styles to make your investments in FOREX : 1. Long Term: recommended for anyone who is going to enter the market for the first time and who can dedicate a minimum of one hour per month to their investments in Forex. The period of an open position ranges from 1 year to 5 years. 2. Medium Term: recommended for anyone who is going to enter the market for the first time and who can dedicate a minimum of one hour per week to their investments in Forex. The period of an open position ranges from 1 month to 1 year. 3. Short Term: recommended for anyone who is going to enter the market for the first time, or who already has a certain time operating in the long and medium-term, showing constant profits, and who can dedicate a minimum of one hour per day to your investments in FOREX. The period of an open position ranges from 1 day to 1 month. 4. Intraday : recommended only for people with a fairly solid earnings record in the short term, and with a capital greater than $ 50,000. As we have noted, this option constitutes a full-time job. People who start investing in FOREX , should start executing short-term (weeks) and medium-term (months) transactions only, and not pay attention to intraday oscillations (day trading). If you are interested in being an intraday speculator, I recommend that you first exhaust at least a year doing operations in the short and medium-term to assimilate the correct strategies and to develop the necessary mentality to carry out this work. The second option would be to participate in some kind of intensive training. I remind you that self-educating is almost impossible in speculation. You are likely to accumulate a lot of knowledge by reading books and attending courses. But you will probably never learn to make money with all the incomplete "systems" circulating on the internet.
Mistakes to Avoid When Looking for Your Style
Many people who are new to FOREX investments make the mistake of combining these styles, which is a key to failure. I recommend that if you are not getting the results you expected by adopting one of these styles, do not try to change it. The problem sure is not in the style, but in your strategies or in your psychology. A successful investor is able to make a profit in any longer trading time than he is used to. I explain. If you are already a profitable operator in the short term, it is very likely that you will also be profitable in the medium and long term, … As long as you can interpret the Language of Price or Price Action. In the opposite case, the same would not happen. If you were a medium-term trader, you would need time to adjust to the intraday. The reality is that long, medium and short term traders have very similar personalities. The intraday trader is completely different.
The Myth of the Intraday in Investments in FOREX
If you are already successful in the short, medium and long term, you will notice that the sacrifice and the hours necessary in front of the computer to operate intraday is much greater. The intraday style will be useful to increase your account if it is less than USD $ 100,000 in a very short time in exchange for 8 to 12 hours a day of hard work but ... You must first develop the necessary skills to operate the intraday. The ideal is to combine all the styles to get more out of the Market and carry out more effective transactions and have a diversification in your investments in FOREX. There are intraday traders that are very successful, but the reality is that there are very few in the world that make a profit year after year. If you want to become an intraday, you just have to prepare yourself properly through intensive training. Otherwise, I recommend that you don't even think about educating yourself to adopt the intraday style. It is not necessary to go against a probability of failure greater than 99%. Unless ... your ego is greater than your common sense. The main reason why this style of investments in FOREX is not recommended for the vast majority of us "retail investors" (the official term "retail traders"), is the high operational cost. The real commissions in this market range between $ 2.0 and $ 2.50 for each lot of 100,000 virtual units. This means that a complete operation (opening and closing) is approximately $ 5.00, for each standard lot traded ($ 100,000 virtual). Another fundamental reason is the advent of robotic traders (HFT = High-Frequency Trading), which tend to manipulate the market in the shorter intraday swings. Please do not confuse HFTs with automated systems that we find daily on the internet, and that can be purchased for a few hundred dollars and often for free on FOREX forums / groups. These HFTs to which I refer, they are effective. They cost millions of dollars and have been developed by the large Wall Street financial firms to manage their investments in FOREX. The reality of the intraday trader is that you execute orders for large lots at the same time, to profit from the smallest movements in the market. It is an activity based on reflexes. The slightest oversight or distraction can turn into a catastrophe for your FOREX investments. I recommend that you start investing in FOREX using slow time periods such as H4 or Daily. For some reason, all Goldman Sachs intraday FOREX investments are made with algorithms.
To choose your style as a trader and manage your investments in FOREX, first determine what your degree of experience is, analyze the points mentioned below and the rest you will discover when you execute your first operations. The points that will affect your decision are:
Time available each day
Level of Experience
Discovering your style is a search process. For some it will be a long way to find the right time frame that matches their personality. Don't be put off by the falls. After all, those who continue the path despite the falls are the ones who reach the destination. And I hope you are one of those who get up over and over again. The next lesson will boost your confidence when you discover the main reason that moves currencies ...
Fundamental Analysis in Forex Trading Reddit
The fundamental analysis in Forex is used mostly by long-term investors. Players as we saw in the styles of operators, start a negotiation today, to close it years later. I always emphasize the importance that the mass media give to this type of analysis to distract the great mass of participants. It is all part of a great mass psychological manipulation. For centuries the ignorance of the masses has been organized before the great movements begin. The important news are the macroeconomic reports published by the Central Banks and other government agencies destined for this work. All reports are made up. 99% of them are corrected months later. These events are tools to justify fundamental analysis and price cleaning movements. Any silly headline does the job. With this, it is possible to absorb most of the existing liquidity, before the new trend phase is projected.
Except in rare situations, the result of an economic report of the fundamental analysis is generally already assimilated in the graph. In most cases, there are financial institutions that already have access to this information and are organizing and carrying out their operations in advance. The phrase buy the rumor and sell the news is a very old adage on Wall Street. And its meaning contains what we have just explained. For the investor who can interpret the Language of Price, fundamental analysis is of little importance. Well, in general, their disclosure does not indicate that you have to take any action in your open trades , as long as your entry strategy provides you with a good support cushion. This reality of fundamental analysis causes a lot of confusion for investors who lack in-depth knowledge of the forex market.
The data published in these events is irrelevant. Both for speculators and for the people in general. They are false. They lack reliability. The price can go up or down with the same result of the data. The main ones are: - Interest Rates - GDP (gross domestic product) - CPI (inflation) - ISM (manufacturing index) - NFP (payroll) - Double Deficits (deficit = fiscal + balance of payments) If you are initiated, I recommend you avoid operating near these events. It is only a matter of having the time pending. Use the economic calendar for Fundamental Analysis of Forex Factory. There is a probabilistic advantage in operating these fundamental analysis events. But it takes preparation, experience, and practice. They represent a way of diversifying in the general operation of a speculator.
The Uncertainty of Fundamental Analysis
On many occasions after the disclosure of an economic report, the price movement of the currency pair that is going to be affected tends to move in the opposite direction to the logic of the report. I show you an example of a fundamental analysis report. Imagine that the EUR / USD pair is trading at 1.2500, and the FED (US Federal Reserve) issues a statement announcing that it has just raised inter-bank interest rates from 0.25 points to 0.75 points. Very positive news for the US dollar that logically implies an appreciation of the currency and consequently an instantaneous collapse of the EUR / USD pair (up the dollar and down the euro) However, minutes after the release of said fundamental analysis report, the pair after effectively collapsing to 1.2400, returns and returns to its levels prior to the report (1.2500). This situation is very common , but it is not so easy to identify it when it is occurring, but after the damage is done. Traps like these devour the accounts of beginners who approach the market with little experience, with weak strategies, and especially with very little experience. That is why I reiterate that you forget the fundamental analysis for now. Just keep in mind when operating, that there is no publication scheduled nearby. Just check the economic calendar for the day and forget about the numbers. Let the economists mess around with the data.
FOREX Market Correlation
The Forex market correlation exists between pairs with similar "base" currencies and not always under the same circumstances. The correlation in the Forex market that is most followed and that has the greatest impact on fundamental analysis is that of the US dollar (USD). The USD is the most traded monetary unit with a volume greater than 80% with respect to the rest of the currencies. This fact determines why their correlation is the most important, the most followed, and perhaps the only one worth following in the fundamental macro analysis. The 7 major pairs are usually in sync . These 7 pairs all include the USD and present a fundamental analysis correlation almost 75% of the time. Influencing the rest of the currency pairs.
Advantages of the FOREX Market Correlation
In the fundamental analysis the most basic FOREX correlation is the following. When the USD appreciates, the USD / CAD, USD / CHF, and USD / JPY pairs tend to go up in price. This indicates that the Canadian dollar (CAD), the Swiss franc (CHF), and the Japanese yen (JPY) are losing value against the USD. We must bear in mind that this correlation does not occur 100% of the time. In fact, the JPY generally tends to move in the opposite direction , since in recent decades this currency has been used as a source of financing to invest in other financial instruments. On the other side is the FOREX market correlation that generates a movement almost in unison in the other 4 major pairs EUR / USD, GBP / USD, AUD / USD, and NZD / USD. These tend to fall in price, homologous the appreciation of the USD. But not always. In this case the fundamental analysis correlation works most of the time, between 65 and 85% of the time. Small differences are noted in the extent that each of these pairs experiences. There is also a correlation in the secondary FOREX market, where the pairs of all currencies that do not include the USD participate, but I recommend you not to waste time on them for now. There are more important things about the Language of Price to know first.
FOREX Commodity Correlation
In this part I will explain to you in a basic way the Correlation Commodities - FOREX of the fundamental analysis. There are three currencies that have a direct correlation with commodities. They are usually called: "COMDOLLS" which is short for "Commodities Dollars" (Commodities Dollars), since all three obey the dollar denomination. These are: - The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) - The Australian Dollar (AUD) - The Canadian Dollar (CAD) These three currencies make up the group of the 8 largest together with the euro, the pound, the yen, the franc and the US dollar. Together, they merge to produce the major pairs traded in the FOREX Foreign Exchange Market. The FOREX Commodity Correlation has an affinity in most cases greater than 75%. And each of them has its different raw material of correlation. You will notice that the NZD and the AUD are two currencies that act practically in unison. Both present minimal discrepancies in their fluctuations in the short, medium and long term. This is mainly because their economies are very similar and their economic and fiscal policies are too. Their main production items also show great similarities, despite the fact that the Australian economy is much larger than the New Zealand economy. The raw materials that follow the movement of the AUD are mainly gold and copper. If you put the history of these three quotes during the last decade of the year 2,000 together on the same chart, you will notice a very similar upward movement between the three quotes. Pure correlation of fundamental analysis. This strong correlation with commodities in the metals area for the AUD has provided Australia with an economic advantage enviable over the other major powers that have seen their currencies devalue sharply against the AUD. At the same time, they experience a constant decrease in the purchasing power of their citizens. The NZD maintains a correlation with raw materials related to agriculture and livestock, mainly including milk and its derivatives. It is one of the countries that dominates the world export of these economic items, and also has important exports of metals , although in smaller quantities than Australia. Finally, you have a correlation with raw materials in the energy area. For historical reasons the CAD, which is not the largest oil producer in the world, but an important supplier to the largest consumer that is the US, has seen its currency oscillate in line with oil prices. To make long-term investments in the Foreign Exchange Market, it is necessary to take into consideration at least one Commodity Correlation - FOREX in your fundamental analysis.
Forex Technical Analysis Reddit
The technical analysis is the methodology that interprets the movements of the price. Specialists look for liquidity to fund their business. The repetition of the strategies used by the specialists in their work generate repetitive patterns. If you were an analyst, you would develop the visual ability to identify such patterns on a graph. If you were a programmer you would quantify them mathematically using complex formulas. And if you could learn to interpret the Language of Price, you would have the ability to anticipate 90% of all movements that occur on a chart. And in this business, anticipating is what will make you money. Market prices are reflected and framed on a horizontal time axis and a vertical price axis. Prices go up or down according to the aggressiveness of the participating operators. In an efficient or balanced market these oscillations should be imperceptible. But in reality this is not the case, since the Market works thanks to the digital printing of hundreds of billions of units of paper money systematically distributed by the Central Banks through the banking system. These resources serve as a tool to manipulate 100% of the movements that occur in the FOREX Market. Are you looking for Technical Indicators? All technical indicators were created from the 70's. How do you think that for more than 200 years the speculators of the past accumulated great wealth? With the Language of Price. The best timing is given by the price itself. Indicator-generated entry signals usually occur at the wrong time. The basis of technical analysis is human psychology. Unfortunately, human beings are not perfect and are loaded with emotions that dominate their behavior in similar situations, creating repetitive and highly predictable behavior when it occurs in masses. The study of technical analysis through indicators and subjective training, originates and shapes the collective thinking on which all the traps that specialists execute every day to maintain their business are designed. If the majority won, the Market would cease to exist. Although you already know that the patterns are not generated by the masses , but the repetitive behavior of the Specialists in the face of the action response of the masses. It is very easy for speculaists, because they can see everyone's orders in their books. And they also exert a great influence on the decisions of the masses through the mass media. It is what I call the war between the Egg and the Stone , if you hit me you win and if I hit you also you win.
The Deception of Modern Technical Analysis
Through the centuries thousands of people have been able to extract great benefits from the financial markets by applying the basic strategies of technical analysis and the psychology of the Price Language. More than 200 years ago when the markets began to operate officially, fundamental analysis predominated, which was only used by large financial institutions. As this analysis tool began to become popular, these institutions began to apply the strategies of technical analysis. In recent decades and with the massification of internet technology, technical analysis has begun to be handled by anyone who has a computer with internet access. The same financial institutions, which have been present for more than a century and as a result of this overcrowding , establish a strategy to confuse and misinform about the true strategies of technical analysis. This has been accomplished in the following manner. Currently there are hundreds, if not thousands of technical indicators that have been developed by so-called "gurus" of technical analysis and that sell their magic indicators packed in a "system" or "method" that usually cost thousands of dollars, or simply with the publication of a book with which they generate large profits. Double benefit. The aim is to confuse the initiates in speculation and create the collective mentality that will originate the same behaviors over and over again. About 95% of these new entrants completely lose all the capital they invest in their early stages as investors. Leaving them with a negative experience and creating the idea and the image that financial markets are an exclusive area for geniuses with high academic levels and that only they can produce returns in the markets year after year. The initiate, having lost all his original capital, turns to these “gurus” for help and teachings. You spend more capital on the products they offer you and the cycle repeats itself . Obviously, the vast majority do not relapse and completely forget to re-engage in the stock markets. I hope you have not been a victim of this drama. Now I will show you the simplicity of a FOREX technical analysis , without the need to resort to any indicator as a tool to determine an effective entry or exit strategy when planning your operations.
The Price Cycle
Previously you studied in the FOREX strategies lesson, that the typical price cycle when it is reflected in a graph, presents four very specific phases and very easy to identify if you perform a technical analysis with common sense . These are:
Remember also that the most effective way to constantly extract profits in the markets is by taking advantage of phases 2 and 4 (the trends). Combined with a correct reading of the collective behavior of the masses of speculators interpreting the Language of Price. You will be surprised by the simplicity with which thousands of people around the world and over the centuries have accumulated large sums of money by drawing a few simple lines and applying responsible risk management with their capital.
How to Identify Trends?
Being able to determine the trend phases within the price cycle is the essence of technical analysis since it is these two phases that provide you with the probabilistic advantage you need to operate in the markets and obtain constant returns. In the most plain and simple language, in the world of technical analysis, there are only two types of formations: trends and ranges. The trends, in turn, can be bullish if they go up, or bearish if they go down. The ranges, on the other hand, can be accumulation if they are at the beginning of the cycle, or distribution if they are in the high part of the cycle. As I had indicated in the topic of FOREX strategies when describing the price cycle. This sounds more like a play on words, but I will show you the practical definition to simplify your life and then you will apply these definitions on the graph so that everything makes more sense to you.
Bullish trend: a succession of major highs and major lows
Bearish trend: a succession of minor highs and minor lows
The start of this big uptrend was detected when the last high (thick green line) of the previous downtrend was broken to the upside, ending the succession of lower highs, while exiting the lateral floor formation.
The succession of major lows in the uptrend (thin blue lines)
The succession of major highs in the uptrend (thin green lines)
The end of the uptrend was detected when the last low (thick blue line) of the uptrend was broken to the downside, ending the succession of higher lows, while exiting the lateral ceiling formation.
A tool that will help you sharpen your technical eye and identify trends on the chart is the Currency Scanner. This application is very effective and will provide you with a much-needed boost in your operations to identify reliable trends. At first, we are not sure how reliable a trend is. You will receive great help to find opportunities with the Currency Scanner .
The Common Sense, The Less Common of Senses
The central idea of technical analysis consists in determining the price situation of a market, that is, in which phase of the pattern of its cycle it is currently conjugated with the collective thinking of the masses and the possible traps that the market would have prepared to remove. the capital at stake by the public. To carry out a precise technical analysis, you will use the support and resistance lines, which can be static (horizontal) or dynamic (projecting an angle with respect to the horizontal axis). Your common sense prevails here. If you show a 10-year-old a chart, they will be able to tell you if the price is going up or down. You will most likely have no idea how to draw the lines, but you will be able to establish the general trend. Simply using your common sense. By introducing indicators and other gadgets , the simplicity and effectiveness of the technical analysis created by your common sense evaporates. The following graph conceptually shows you all the possible situations in which you could draw these lines to carry out your technical analysis of the place. You can clearly observe a downtrend delimited by its dynamic trend line and an uptrend on the right side with its respective dynamic delimitation. https://preview.redd.it/5iehg0r6guv51.png?width=500&format=png&auto=webp&s=84c265a5d35da7ea970792c4bf40fe20b33bd8bd
Forex Charts Analysis
I want to remind you that the formations or patterns that develop on the charts (triangles, wedges, pennants, boxes, etc.) only work to execute trades that have initially been confirmed by the static support and resistance lines and to read the collective thinking of the masses. Chart formations work, but you must know the Language of Price to determine when the Specialists will exploit a chartist figure, or when they will allow it to run. In fact, you will learn with the Language that you can operate a chart figure in any direction. Much of the "mentalization" that the masses receive is to believe that the figures are made to be respected. Which is an inefficient way of working. Simply because you could wait days or months for a perfect chart figure to occur in order to perform a reliable trade. When in fact there are dozens every day.
Of all the tools you have to carry out technical analysis, perhaps the best known and most popular is the Japanese technique of candles (candlesticks). Candles are mainly used to identify reversal points on the chart without resorting to confirmation of horizontal trend lines and only using a previous bar or candle breaks. Its correct use is subject to a multi-time analysis (multiple temporalities) and a general evaluation of the context proposed by the market in general at the time of each scenario. Later I will show you all the important details to take into account so that you use Japanese candles in a simple and very effective way. Do not forget ... Trading in your beginnings based on formations (chartism) and candlestick patterns conjugated with hundreds of tools and technical indicators, constitutes the perfect path to your failure. Before using any strategy or technique I recommend you focus on learning the Price Language, which includes 3 basic things:
The Price: structure and dynamics
Market sentiment: relative strength, external shocks, etc.
Psychology: flexible mindset and risk acceptance
After you acquire this solid foundation, I guarantee that you will be able to trade any trading system that exists, any strategy, technique or chart figure in a profitable and consistent manner. Specialists make money every day at the expense of the collective behavior caused by the use of these strategies and techniques. With which you will only manage to lose your capital and your time by putting the cart in front of the horse. People who do the opposite, at best become, ... Philosophers of Speculation, or indocile Robot Assistants or Expert Advisors. To make money in any market condition, range or trend, you must use the technical analysis based on the Price Language and combine it with a correct psychological reading of the price. This knowledge can only be acquired through proper education and lots of supervised practice. Like any other career in life. I hope you've found this guide helpful!
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3) More Than leveraged - Leverage is a two way street. The Currency is half a commerce; failure or success depends upon being about the money that makes up the set. Profit targets will produce the agent rich. The desire to"only" make a couple hundred dollars per day by bending in miniature profits whenever possible will be a losing approach. A cost fast becomes a high cost when you're trading from the trend. Two ) Overtrading - trading with tiny and tight stops 4) Determined by Others -- Actual investors play a lone hand; they Brokers want you to work with leverage since that means more disperse income because your position dimension determines the quantity of spread income; the bigger the position the spread income the broker earns. Traders, and hedge funds have a enormous advantage they could push the currencies round when no volume is currently going through and the ending game is new traders get fleeced attempting to exchange signs best forex brokers in uk. There is just one signal during off hours – stay out. Trading plan is a blueprint for trading success; it spells out everything you see your edge as being; if you don't have an advantage, you do not have a plan, and likely you'll wind up a statistic (portion of this 95% of traders that lose and quit). 1) Knowledge Deficiency -- Many new FOREX traders do Not take Make their own conclusions and do not rely on others to make their trading decisions for themthere is not any halfway; either trade for yourself or have someone else exchange for you. Agents is a recipe for disaster. When you place on a commerce commit to a stop loss limit which enables your trade a fair opportunity to develop. 9) No Trading Strategy - earn money is not a trading plan brokers reviews. A 7) Trading Through Off Hours -- Bank FX traders, option The time to find out what pushes money rates (mostly fundamentals). When news or a statement is because they have to close out their positions and also sit out the very best trading opportunities. Following the market calms down, they are taught to only trade. So they overlook the entire move and trade the random sound that follows a cost move that is fundamental. About trading the aftermath of a price movement, just think for a minute . 8) Trading a Currency, Not a Demo -- Becoming right about a Sorts; they are not as time sensitive as actual accounts and so give the impression that time sensitive trading systems, such as average crossovers can be constantly profitably traded; after you start dealing with real cash reality is fast to set in. Difference between buying and buying. What was 5) Stop Losses -- Putting tight stop losses with retail top forex brokers
How to get started in Forex - A comprehensive guide for newbies
Almost every day people come to this subreddit asking the same basic questions over and over again. I've put this guide together to point you in the right direction and help you get started on your forex journey. A quick background on me before you ask: My name is Bob, I'm based out of western Canada. I started my forex journey back in January 2018 and am still learning. However I am trading live, not on demo accounts. I also code my own EA's. I not certified, licensed, insured, or even remotely qualified as a professional in the finance industry. Nothing I say constitutes financial advice. Take what I'm saying with a grain of salt, but everything I've outlined below is a synopsis of some tough lessons I've learned over the last year of being in this business. LET'S GET SOME UNPLEASANTNESS OUT OF THE WAY I'm going to call you stupid. I'm also going to call you dumb. I'm going to call you many other things. I do this because odds are, you are stupid, foolish,and just asking to have your money taken away. Welcome to the 95% of retail traders. Perhaps uneducated or uninformed are better phrases, but I've never been a big proponent of being politically correct. Want to get out of the 95% and join the 5% of us who actually make money doing this? Put your grown up pants on, buck up, and don't give me any of this pc "This is hurting my feelings so I'm not going to listen to you" bullshit that the world has been moving towards. Let's rip the bandage off quickly on this point - the world does not give a fuck about you. At one point maybe it did, it was this amazing vision nicknamed the American Dream. It died an agonizing, horrible death at the hand of capitalists and entrepreneurs. The world today revolves around money. Your money, my money, everybody's money. People want to take your money to add it to theirs. They don't give a fuck if it forces you out on the street and your family has to live in cardboard box. The world just stopped caring in general. It sucks, but it's the way the world works now. Welcome to the new world order. It's called Capitalism. And here comes the next hard truth that you will need to accept - Forex is a cruel bitch of a mistress. She will hurt you. She will torment you. She will give you nightmares. She will keep you awake at night. And then she will tease you with a glimmer of hope to lure you into a false sense of security before she then guts you like a fish and shows you what your insides look like. This statement applies to all trading markets - they are cruel, ruthless, and not for the weak minded. The sooner you accept these truths, the sooner you will become profitable. Don't accept it? That's fine. Don't bother reading any further. If I've offended you I don't give a fuck. You can run back home and hide under your bed. The world doesn't care and neither do I. For what it's worth - I am not normally an major condescending asshole like the above paragraphs would suggest. In fact, if you look through my posts on this subreddit you will see I am actually quite helpful most of the time to many people who come here. But I need you to really understand that Forex is not for most people. It will make you cry. And if the markets themselves don't do it, the people in the markets will. LESSON 1 - LEARN THE BASICS Save yourself and everybody here a bunch of time - learn the basics of forex. You can learn the basics for free - BabyPips has one of the best free courses online which explains what exactly forex is, how it works, different strategies and methods of how to approach trading, and many other amazing topics. You can access the BabyPips course by clicking this link: https://www.babypips.com/learn/forex Do EVERY course in the School of Pipsology. It's free, it's comprehensive, and it will save you from a lot of trouble. It also has the added benefit of preventing you from looking foolish and uneducated when you come here asking for help if you already know this stuff. If you still have questions about how forex works, please see the FREE RESOURCES links on the /Forex FAQ which can be found here: https://www.reddit.com/Forex/wiki/index Quiz Time Answer these questions truthfully to yourself: -What is the difference between a market order, a stop order, and a limit order? -How do you draw a support/resistance line? (Demonstrate it to yourself) -What is the difference between MACD, RSI, and Stochastic indicators? -What is fundamental analysis and how does it differ from technical analysis and price action trading? -True or False: It's better to have a broker who gives you 500:1 margin instead of 50:1 margin. Be able to justify your reasoning. If you don't know to answer to any of these questions, then you aren't ready to move on. Go back to the School of Pipsology linked above and do it all again. If you can answer these questions without having to refer to any kind of reference then congratulations, you are ready to move past being a forex newbie and are ready to dive into the wonderful world of currency trading! Move onto Lesson 2 below. LESSON 2 - RANDOM STRANGERS ARE NOT GOING TO HELP YOU GET RICH IN FOREX This may come as a bit of a shock to you, but that random stranger on instagram who is posting about how he is killing it on forex is not trying to insprire you to greatness. He's also not trying to help you. He's also not trying to teach you how to attain financial freedom. 99.99999% of people posting about wanting to help you become rich in forex are LYING TO YOU. Why would such nice, polite people do such a thing? Because THEY ARE TRYING TO PROFIT FROM YOUR STUPIDITY. Plain and simple. Here's just a few ways these "experts" and "gurus" profit from you:
Referral Links - If they require you to click a specific link to signup for something, it means they are an affiliate. They get a commission from whatever the third party is that they are sending you to. I don't care if it's a brokerage, training program, hell even an Amazon link to a book - if they insist you have to click their super exclusive, can't-get-this-deal-any-other-way-but-clicking-my-link type bullshit, it's an affiliate link. There is nothing inherently wrong with affiliate programs, but you are literally generating money for some stranger because they convinced you to buy something. Some brokers such as ICMarkets have affiliate programs that payout a percentage of the commission you generate - this is a really clever system - whether you profit or blow your entire account, the person who referred you to the broker makes a profit off you. Clever eh?
Signal Services, Education & Training Programs, Courses - If somebody is telling you they are making a killing with a signal service and are trying to convince you to join it, I guarantee they are getting a piece of your monthly fee. And better still, these signal services often work...for about a week. Just long enough to suck a bunch of poor fools into it. You see people making money, you want in so you agree to pay the $200+/month subscription fee. You follow the signals and it looks like it's making money for a few days or weeks. Then it turns sideways, you start losing money hand over fist. Pretty soon you have lost most of your trading account because you blindly followed a signal service. And better still - when you go screaming at the person running the signal service they will be very quick to point you to their No Refunds policy. To add insult to injury, the buttfucker that referred you to the signal service in the past will likely listen to you getting mad, and then come back with something like "Sorry it didn't work out, but I just joined this other amazing service and it's working great, you should come join it to earn your money back. Here's my link..." You get the point here right?
Multi-Level Marketing (MLMs) - These people are scum. They are going to offer you training and education, signals, access to forex experts and gurus, and all kinds of other shit with the promise that you will live the dream and become financially free. They are also loading you into a pyrmaid scheme where you will be hounded to recruit other people and make money off them just like you got roped into it. A really prime example here is iMarkets Live (or IML for short). Don't touch this shit with a 10 foot pole. I don't care what they are claiming, you will lose everything using them.
Fund Managers - These people make my skin crawl. It's a classic scam and it works like this - somebody will post online about how much money they are making trading forex/commodities/stocks/whatever. Most of the time they won't explicitly post they are offering a trading service, rather they just put the message out there and wait for the ignorant masses (that's you) to contact them. They will charm you. They will lie to you. They will promise you the moon if you simply wire them some money or give them API access to your trading account. Care to guess what happens next? If you send a wire transfer (or Western Union...hell any kind of payment to them) they will vanish. Happens usually after they take a bunch of suckers for the ride. You sent them $2,000 and so do 9 other suckers. They just made $20,000 and are gone. With API access to your account, you will find your account gets blown super fast or worse - possibly leaving you open to persecution by the broker you are using.
These are just a few examples. The reality is that very few people make it big in forex or any kind of trading. If somebody is trying to sell you the dream, they are essentially a magician - making you look the other way while they snatch your wallet and clean you out. Additionally, on the topic of fund managers - legitimate fund managers will be certified, licensed, and insured. Ask them for proof of those 3 things. What they typically look like are:
Certified - This varies from country to country, in the US it's FINRA (http://www.finra.org). They need to have their Series 7 certification minimum. You can make the case that other FINRA certifications are acceptable in lieu of Series 7, but the 7 is the gold standard.
Licensed - They need to have a valid business license issued by the government. It must clearly state they are an investment company, preferrably a hedge fund because they have some super strict requirements to operate (and often require $25,000+ in fees just to get their business license, so you know they at least have some skin in the game).
Insured - They need to be backed by an insurance company. I'm not talking general insurance for shit like their office burning down. I'm talking about a government-implemented protection insurance program - in the US I believe that is issued by the Securities Investment Protection Corporation (https://www.sipc.org/).
If you are talking to a fund manager and they are insisting they have all of these, get a copy of their verification documents and lookup their licenses on the directories of the issuers to verify they are valid. If they are, then at least you are talking to somebody who seems to have their shit together and is doing investment management and trading as a professional and you are at least partially protected when the shit hits the fan. LESSON 3 - UNDERSTAND YOUR RISK Many people jump into Forex, drop $2000 into a broker account and start trading 1 lot orders because they signed up with a broker thinking they will get rich because they were given 500:1 margin and can risk it all on each trade. Worst-case scenario you lose your account, best case scenario you become a millionaire very quickly. Seems like a pretty good gamble right? You are dead wrong. As a new trader, you should never risk more than 1% of your account balance on a trade. If you have some experience and are confident and doing well, then it's perfectly natural to risk 2-3% of your account per trade. Anybody who risks more than 4-5% of their account on a single trade deserves to blow their account. At that point you aren't trading, you are gambling. Don't pretend you are a trader when really you are just putting everything on red and hoping the roulette ball lands in the right spot. It's stupid and reckless and going to screw you very quickly. Let's do some math here: You put $2,000 into your trading account. Risking 1% means you are willing to lose $20 per trade. That means you are going to be trading micro lots, or 0.01 lots most likely ($0.10/pip). At that level you can have a trade stop loss at -200 pips and only lose $20. It's the best starting point for anybody. Additionally, if you SL 20 trades in a row you are only down $200 (or 10% of your account) which isn't that difficult to recover from. Risking 3% means you are willing to lose $60 per trade. You could do mini lots at this point, which is 0.1 lots (or $1/pip). Let's say you SL on 20 trades in a row. You've just lost $1,200 or 60% of your account. Even veteran traders will go through periods of repeat SL'ing, you are not a special snowflake and are not immune to periods of major drawdown. Risking 5% means you are willing to lose $100 per trade. SL 20 trades in a row, your account is blown. As Red Foreman would call it - Good job dumbass. Never risk more than 1% of your account on any trade until you can show that you are either consistently breaking even or making a profit. By consistently, I mean 200 trades minimum. You do 200 trades over a period of time and either break-even or make a profit, then you should be alright to increase your risk. Unfortunately, this is where many retail traders get greedy and blow it. They will do 10 trades and hit their profit target on 9 of them. They will start seeing huge piles of money in their future and get greedy. They will start taking more risk on their trades than their account can handle. 200 trades of break-even or profitable performance risking 1% per trade. Don't even think about increasing your risk tolerance until you do it. When you get to this point, increase you risk to 2%. Do 1,000 trades at this level and show break-even or profit. If you blow your account, go back down to 1% until you can figure out what the hell you did differently or wrong, fix your strategy, and try again. Once you clear 1,000 trades at 2%, it's really up to you if you want to increase your risk. I don't recommend it. Even 2% is bordering on gambling to be honest. LESSON 4 - THE 500 PIP DRAWDOWN RULE This is a rule I created for myself and it's a great way to help protect your account from blowing. Sometimes the market goes insane. Like really insane. Insane to the point that your broker can't keep up and they can't hold your orders to the SL and TP levels you specified. They will try, but during a flash crash like we had at the start of January 2019 the rules can sometimes go flying out the window on account of the trading servers being unable to keep up with all the shit that's hitting the fan. Because of this I live by a rule I call the 500 Pip Drawdown Rule and it's really quite simple - Have enough funds in your account to cover a 500 pip drawdown on your largest open trade. I don't care if you set a SL of -50 pips. During a flash crash that shit sometimes just breaks. So let's use an example - you open a 0.1 lot short order on USDCAD and set the SL to 50 pips (so you'd only lose $50 if you hit stoploss). An hour later Trump makes some absurd announcement which causes a massive fundamental event on the market. A flash crash happens and over the course of the next few minutes USDCAD spikes up 500 pips, your broker is struggling to keep shit under control and your order slips through the cracks. By the time your broker is able to clear the backlog of orders and activity, your order closes out at 500 pips in the red. You just lost $500 when you intended initially to only risk $50. It gets kinda scary if you are dealing with whole lot orders. A single order with a 500 pip drawdown is $5,000 gone in an instant. That will decimate many trader accounts. Remember my statements above about Forex being a cruel bitch of a mistress? I wasn't kidding. Granted - the above scenario is very rare to actually happen. But glitches to happen from time to time. Broker servers go offline. Weird shit happens which sets off a fundamental shift. Lots of stuff can break your account very quickly if you aren't using proper risk management. LESSON 5 - UNDERSTAND DIFFERENT TRADING METHODOLOGIES Generally speaking, there are 3 trading methodologies that traders employ. It's important to figure out what method you intend to use before asking for help. Each has their pros and cons, and you can combine them in a somewhat hybrid methodology but that introduces challenges as well. In a nutshell:
Price Action Trading (Sometimes called Naked Trading) is very effective at identifying when trends will start and finish. This gives you the advantage of staying ahead of the market and predicting when a change in trend direction will occur. It has the disadvantage of being really easy to screw it up if you don't plot your support and resistance lines properly and interpret the chart wrong. Because you can identify a change in trend direction, you'll generally make more profit on a new trend than a technical strategy will.
Technical Analytics (or TA) uses math and statistics to try and identify where the market is headed or confirm/reject whether a trend is happening. It has the advantage of being very math and stat driven which is hard to refute the numbers, but it has the disadvantage of being late to the party when it comes to identifying trends (hence why people call TA a lagging strategy). When people fail using TA, it's not because of the math - it's because you misinterpreted what the math is telling you.
Fundamental Analysis (or FA) uses news and macro scale events to predict what is going on. A really good example right now is Brexit, what a clusterfuck that is. Every time some major brexit news breaks it causes all sorts of choas in almost every currency pair. Fundamental trading has the highest potential profitability per trade but it also has the highest potential drawdown per trade.
Now you may be thinking that you want to be a a price action trader - you should still learn the principles and concepts behind TA and FA. Same if you are planning to be a technical trader - you should learn about price action and fundamental analysis. More knowledge is better, always. With regards to technical analysis, you need to really understand what the different indicators are tell you. It's very easy to misinterpret what an indicator is telling you, which causes you to make a bad trade and lose money. It's also important to understand that every indicator can be tuned to your personal preferences. You might find, for example, that using Bollinger Bands with the normal 20 period SMA close, 2 standard deviation is not effective for how you look at the chart, but changing that to say a 20 period EMA average price, 1 standard deviation bollinger band indicator could give you significantly more insight. LESSON 6 - TIMEFRAMES MATTER Understanding the differences in which timeframes you trade on will make or break your chosen strategy. Some strategies work really well on Daily timeframes (i.e. Ichimoku) but they fall flat on their face if you use them on 1H timeframes, for example. There is no right or wrong answer on what timeframe is best to trade on. Generally speaking however, there are 2 things to consider:
Speed - If you are scalping (trading on the really fast candles like 1M, 5M, 15M, etc) odds are your trades are very short lived. Maybe 10 minutes to an hour tops. For the most part, scalping strategies will produce little profit per trade but make up for it in the sheer volume of trades. Whereas swing trading may only make a few trades but each one could be worth a significant amount of money.
Spread (the fee you pay to the broker when you trade) - If you are a scalper, the spread is your worst enemy because you have to overcome it very fast to make a profit on your order. Whereas swing trading the spread hardly impacts you at all.
If you are a total newbie to forex, I suggest you don't trade on anything shorter than the 1H timeframe when you are first learning. Trading on higher timeframes tends to be much more forgiving and profitable per trade. Scalping is a delicate art and requires finesse and can be very challenging when you are first starting out. LESSON 7 - AUTOBOTS...ROLL OUT! Yeah...I'm a geek and grew up with the Transformers franchise decades before Michael Bay came along. Deal with it. Forex bots are called EA's (Expert Advisors). They can be wonderous and devastating at the same time. /Forex is not really the best place to get help with them. That is what /algotrading is useful for. However some of us that lurk on /Forex code EA's and will try to assist when we can. Anybody can learn to code an EA. But just like how 95% of retail traders fail, I would estimate the same is true for forex bots. Either the strategy doesn't work, the code is buggy, or many other reasons can cause EA's to fail. Because EA's can often times run up hundreds of orders in a very quick period of time, it's critical that you test them repeatedly before letting them lose on a live trading account so they don't blow your account to pieces. You have been warned. If you want to learn how to code an EA, I suggest you start with MQL. It's a programming language which can be directly interpretted by Meta Trader. The Meta Trader terminal client even gives you a built in IDE for coding EA's in MQL. The downside is it can be buggy and glitchy and caused many frustrating hours of work to figure out what is wrong. If you don't want to learn MQL, you can code an EA up in just about any programming language. Python is really popular for forex bots for some reason. But that doesn't mean you couldn't do it in something like C++ or Java or hell even something more unusual like JQuery if you really wanted. I'm not going to get into the finer details of how to code EA's, there are some amazing guides out there. Just be careful with them. They can be your best friend and at the same time also your worst enemy when it comes to forex. One final note on EA's - don't buy them. Ever. Let me put this into perspective - I create an EA which is literally producing money for me automatically 24/5. If it really is a good EA which is profitable, there is no way in hell I'm selling it. I'm keeping it to myself to make a fortune off of. EA's that are for sale will not work, will blow your account, and the developer who coded it will tell you that's too darn bad but no refunds. Don't ever buy an EA from anybody. LESSON 8 - BRING ON THE HATERS You are going to find that this subreddit is frequented by trolls. Some of them will get really nasty. Some of them will threaten you. Some of them will just make you miserable. It's the price you pay for admission to the /Forex club. If you can't handle it, then I suggest you don't post here. Find a more newbie-friendly site. It sucks, but it's reality. We often refer to trolls on this subreddit as shitcunts. That's your word of the day. Learn it, love it. Shitcunts. YOU MADE IT, WELCOME TO FOREX! If you've made it through all of the above and aren't cringing or getting scared, then welcome aboard the forex train! You will fit in nicely here. Ask your questions and the non-shitcunts of our little corner of reddit will try to help you. Assuming this post doesn't get nuked and I don't get banned for it, I'll add more lessons to this post over time. Lessons I intend to add in the future:
Why you will blow your first account and what to do when it happens
Trading Psychology (this will be a beefy one and will take a while to put together)
Exotics vs Majors and which you should focus on as a newbie (aka how to blow your account in a single trade with exotics)
I thought it a good time to revisit ACB's prior convertible debt issue, in lieu of their share price advances and further convertible dumps. For background, at the bottom is a post I did in June 2017 that pulled their debt apart, and tried to make some sense of it. This is what ACB has done since. There's millions more outstanding, I'll consolidate and update at some point. They'd triggered an earlier tranche debentures at trigger of some $25MM, squashing that bug earlier this month. They'll be booking a $2MM charge against income in Q2-2018 for this. As well, given share price of today, the accelerated 17MM tranche @ $3 will be executed in December. While it's cash proceeds of some $50MM, they'll be taking a charge against income of $90MM for it in Q2-2018 as well. Yeah, convertibles can become very expensive money. One view would be that ACB is doing it now, because it's just gonna become waaay more expensive later on. And, they can deploy that $50MM to build hard assets. If shares soar, it'll be seen as having been prudent. One way or the other, they've just paid $1.75 for a dollar, 50 million times. There's more issues as well: 1.9MM 5yr @ $2.76, 1MM 5yr @ $2.39, and.........drum roll... 150MM of 3yr options and warrants for $75MM cash, priced at $3 & $4 respectively in Q1 2018. I'm gonna need some time and a quantum computer to hash this out. On the face of it, this all makes the phrase 'holy shit' seem a quiet understatement. Ima gonna do a long haul on this and post it - mainly because the totality of it is so massive relative to the company. Stay tuned... ***Deconstructing Convertible Debentures - or - How to Quietly Shift Massive Costs onto Shareholders**** - June 2017 I've made references to this before, but, I think a 'Dick and Jane' primer on the subject should be done. Despite the big words in the title, this stuff is really straightforward, and the math is grade 9 level. It's all about financing. That is, it's just like you going to the bank for a mortgage or a car loan. You need money you don't have to buy the shit you'd like. So. You're likely not gonna issue debentures for that Maserati (or that creamy lil' Ford Focus you simply have to have), but you will need to pledge some capital or use your credit worthiness to get financing. Businesses do the same thing. There's just more ways for them to do it. I'm not gonna go into them all - innovation in credit and credit-related derivatives is holy-fuck level complex. Fortunately, we don't need to go anywhere near that heady stuff (google 'interest rate call swaption' if you've got a finance fetish. Or maybe you're an applied mathematician/financial engineer temporally hedging your long dated forex book at a macro level). Some complexity does play a role here though, but awareness is all that's needed. First - Definitions:
Letter of Credit - cash deposit placed in trust on behalf of a company. Can be 100% (or less) depending on the industry. Sort of like a deposit.
Commercial Paper (CP) - short term financing, usually <1yr duration. Typically linked to cash, A/R, or some other liquid asset. Usually cheap, because it's tied to an asset.
Bonds - Long term financing, usually tied to specific long term assets. A power company might issue bonds and link a specific generating station to them. Or a manufacturer might pledge property plant and equipment. Think 10 years or more.
Debentures - can be short or long term, but, there is no specific asset pledged in case of default. Being riskier for lenders, it's usually an expensive way for a company to get financing. Businesses in this category may not have much (or any) assets, but they might hold a patent, or the lenders think they have a great idea.
Debt Covenants - obligations within the contract that specify behavior of the signees. An example of this might be that the borrower can't issue more debt to pay interest costs.
Second - Options Options are a derivative that is comprised of two values: intrinsic and extrinsic. Third - What's a convertible debenture? It's debt taken by a company, and given to a lender. It's simply a promise to pay. The lender asks for interest to be paid on the money lent (like CP or bonds), usually at rates higher than a secured loan. Sometimes the companies can't afford the interest rates. So, they get creative to entice lenders. One way is to offer nested options around either the company or perhaps future cash flows. Aurora (ACB) recently issued some convertible debentures to finance the Sky expansion. Cool. CMED issued some a year and a bit ago. Ok. Let's look at ACB's in detail, and find out what it cost them to get financing. I'm only gonna do a napkin calc. I could do the deep one, but, I don't want to spend 2 hours to get called names by the non-contributing lost stockhouse vagrants in here. Honestly, you can do the math too. And I'll point out where the complex is, so you'll know what you don't know. Knowing what you don't know is really useful in life. And business. I've seen a bunch in online boards say how great that 7% interest rate ACB got on the $75 million. Is that the actual cost of the money? No. It's not. They're paying a whole lot more than that. And if you're a shareholder, you should be really fucking pissed. I would be. I've never held them, or if I did, it was some short term swing trading last fall. If I can't remember, it wasn't much to remember. Fourth - ACB's Convertible Debenture Issue The $75 million lent is repayable on May 2, 2019. 7% interest, payable semi annually (June, Dec). I'm gonna ignore compounding, and do a straight calc. Materially, it won't matter. The debentures also have a call option nested in them. They also have a put option in them. Both of those options have value. Both extrinsic and intrinsic. So, the lender is not only getting interest on the cash, they're also getting free options from ACB. This was likely needed to sweeten the deal enough for them to do it. There are models out there that value options. They hold up really well. Mathematical laws and all. Simplicity and elegance. Fifth - Total Financing Cost Annually, ACB is paying $5.25MM to service the debt. Total interest cost before they have to repay the principal is $10.5MM. Right? What about that option value they gave up? ACB could've sold warrants/options, and used the premium received as financing too. Instead, they gave to to the financiers. What did they give? Using a $2.20 market price for ACB (today's, not May second), 2 years duration, 100% vol, the call option is $0.96. The put option is $3.20. So, effectively a call option on ~= 20 million shares, and a put on some ~= 15 million shares - assuming full strike on the $75 million. If ACB had written options themselves and sold them, they could have collected the dough, issued contingent treasury shares as a reserve on the balance sheet, and kept the premiums as recompense. I mentioned that there is some complexity in this. The hair on this is in the continuous conversion of the options (open to exercise at any time subject to 30 days notice - also known a a 'European' option, rather than an 'American' option). It's also got debt covenants within the debentures that prohibit ACB from further dilution (this is a failsafe for the lender, in case ACB decides to crash the stock by issuing another billion shares). And - the lender keeps their downside intact (recall, if ACB goes tits up, they've got no asset to grab), the lender will short an equivalent $75million in stock. They'll take the money, and invest it in short term money markets while waiting, topping up their 7% nominal interest. It's called a credit box. Despite it being a debenture, the lender is effectively fully securitized. So, how much did that $75 million cost them? Well, it's all there. I encourage you to look at this and work through it. I hope you have questions. The CFO at Aurora will have the answers. TLDR: Aurora is paying more than 37% in effective interest rates on their May 2 debenture issue. EDIT - a couple of more links inserted and a clean up of my shitty writing. EDIT 2 - at the bottom of this all is the impact on shareholders. What I assume is the obvious - I never did actually state. If the lender exercises, ACB will have to book a loss on their income statement for the difference between the strike of the call, and market. Potentially, it could be lots. If ACB hit $5 before May 2019, they'll take a $50MM hit to income. Probably wiping out a half year (or more) in sales. That's really the bottom of this all. Just fyi.
I'm doing a tribute to the 24 days of Christmas by going over the financial statements of 24 companies that are considered downrange, speculative, and just plain high risk. Our first six stops is fondly captured here, the second one is here. All opinions are my own, and certainly not a recommendation for or against any of them, or to buy or sell. Many are companies I've never looked at before. In some cases, I'd never even heard of them. I limited myself to 45mins to each, and kept mainly to most recent financial statements and MD&A's. You'll likely know more about the company than me if you're following them. This is only my reactions with a brief commentary about what I saw in the financial statements. QCC - Quadron Cannatech Corp
Business risk of product is in being islanded.
Returns driven by manufacturing.
Doubled sales, losses multiplied by 20x in same timeframe
Some sales in the pipe, income statement will improve over next six months.
Capital structure is shitty, but in line with this peerset. These guys have the added bonus of sigh not one, but two (2!) classes of preferred as well.
Nice motivation built into Note 9 on class B preferred shares. Wish more companies did this.
Options and warrants outstanding are long dated, plentiful, and very expensive.
If one wants exposure to peripherals, this is one way. Financials aren’t bad, but manufacturers won’t drive the same margins demanded by share price levels, and only indirectly connected to cannabis. Cheap foreign goods an ever present threat. CMM - Canabo Medical Inc.
Did a share repo on November 28. Don’t hear that often in this sector. Perhaps a first.
Hard to get a handle on the business model and value points. I mean, it’s easy enough to spot, I just doubt there’s any return money in it.
I think recreational is going to kill these guys. Research might be the only thing they’re doing in a couple of years. Someone somewhere will disagree. They’re going to run out of granny’s fast. Even if there is alot of granny’s, they’re gonna be in competition with everyone to get their annual Christmas baking. ISOL - Isodiol International (in USD unless noted)
The Crystal Clear insertion has a story behind it. Shares for shares. Looks like Dad is now a chaperone.
Size of receivables a concern. As is inventory build.
Acquiring. Carlsbad and another un-named pre-stage producer. And ISO Intl. too.
Also spent $250k on ‘Pot-o-Coffee’, whatever the fuck that is.
Spent $250k on some really nice office furniture.
Page 6 of interim financials triggered my gag reflex
Since none of these outfits knows how to hedge forex exposure, I’ll offer to do it. Call me, or pm me. It’s worth the cost. I’ll sign an NDA. I was under 7 at one point, I’m trustworthy.
margin is good. consultant dependency and wages aren’t.
66% of all assets is goodwill.
There is 68 individual notes to share capital composition. Details of Page 6. I just gagged again.
50 million warrants hanging out at $0.33CAD, another 20MM options at $0.19
Capital structure looks like a teenager after meeting Freddy in ‘Nightmare on Elm Street’
Ok. They’ve got assets, revenues, and margin. They’ve also got a shit ton of balance sheet leverage. Capital structure is detailed, but without a super-computer and Stephen Hawking sitting beside me, it’s hard to get a handle. Good apparent disclosure, but simply shifts onus of risk onto reader to unwind. There’s a business in here underneath all of the shit. They also have excellent ‘pot-in-coffee’ and really (really) nice furniture. Whether the business can pay for it all, I can’t tell. Needlessly busy in financials. IMH - Invictus MD
Best defined as ‘conglomerate’
Backed off non-core revenues despite hit to margin. Given attendant G&A expansion, not surprising
Intangibles 50% of assets
profitable in front of store, marketing expense killing them. Sales force needs to pay for itself soon. Expense accounts are way too big relative to output
G&A is a car with no brakes
Dumped $12MM this year, excluding acquisitions. Hope it was all on build, hard to tell
Buying servers and trimming equipment
Puked $46MM onto balance sheet as ACMPR ‘license’ cost. Ugh. ‘Intangibles’ my ass.
New CFO isn’t a good negotiator
Optionality understated in capital structure. Disingenuous on face. Long dated, buckets of money hiding in here. Needlessly clever.
That said, decent disclosure on many parts. Why wrap a gift in saran wrap? More going on.
A brusque 17 pages. This one could use more time. Decent underlying business - while speculative - it has real assets. Capital structure has some plug ins and a few moving parts that beg questions. All a quick scan did was increase curiosity. If the elves had time, they’d want to look at the frame on this one and check for corrosion. Theres alot not said here. MDM - Marapharm Ventures
Nice sales pitch in investor deck..tried and true, but unoriginal
Balance sheet okay, assets/liabs fine. Lots of junk in the trunk
Was good until changes in shareholders equity
How exactly does ‘investor relations’ expenses comprise 30% of a company’s losses in a fiscal year?
Had to wait until page 6 to find out that working capital is “not sufficient to meet its operating, administrative costs, acquisitions and other commitment(s)”
Needs money. Bad. Like ‘EAT needs money’ bad.
If you can figure out Note 13, you’re very good. Please send me a pm explaining it.
Management is modest in cash withdrawals
No clue what they’re doing in the Canadian division, virtually all revenue exposure to - US market but massive expense attribution from up North. Groundbreaking.
There shouldn’t have been a page 30 that calculates prior period adjustments. A million point two. Yet, there it is. On page 30.
Chambering shells on assets, but high risk of a rimfire at this point.
Veritas feels like a money pit
Way too much going on in the ass end of this one. US exposure is one thing, growing and selling dope is alot simpler than this is though. A 31 page effort. Industry average ffs. These guys though have potential to be at 70 pages. Get a straight answer if you can. ATT - Abattis Biocuetical Corp.
Hard to get past the news releases on Sedar. My pdf viewer wont let me view ‘Report of exempt distribution excluding Schedule 1 of 45-106F1’ - whatever that is
June 2017 last date found for filings. Any updated info is somewhat desired and semi-willingly accepted.
Company lost 5x as much money than a year ago
When ‘Accounting & Audit Fees” are the second line on your income statement….at $88,904 and the first line on income statement of revenue, is….$54.00.…you’ve got issues
Another line of expenses is $1.2MM of management fees. One might deem this material.
So does the $2.067MM loss recorded for the period.
“These factors indicate the presence of a material uncertainty that may cast significant doubt on the ability of the Company to continue” Yep. I’ll go with that.
Thank god the company has positioned itself to be a ‘leading service provider’. If they didn’t have ‘integrated solutions’ at the ready, I’d be suspect about it’s future.
I’m out. Please call “Robert Abenante“ for more information.
This dog don’t hunt. That said, I can’t attest to it being a ‘dog’, or that it even knows what ‘hunt’ even means. Who the fuck suggested this one? Why did I listen? All I have now is unruly elves, sadist. I hope you are proud. And now, we’re short 5 companies to complete the Dive Bar Pub Crawl before Christmas. Please, if you are reading this, send help. The elves need 5 more stocks. Anything but ICC - Luis Suárez has already tipped then off, they’re on it.
Hello all. I will make this quite frank. I've been noticing dangerous advise being spread around the forums that is based too much on hype and I do not want the layman investor to suffer. We are all here to profit intelligently, not to gamble. So I would just like to offer a few tips to new investors of stellar. I am not a stock professional but have ties to the finance industry and have dabbled in forex and investments. I got burned so that you don't have to, so heed my advise. Especially since I have institutional friends who have helped me along the way (think Goldman, BNP, JP, etc). Tips: 1.) Do not over-diversify your portfolio but pay attention to exposure. Investing is all about the risk-reward ratio. Greater risk does not always mean greater reward. For example, I have 80% of my portfolio in traditional investment vehicles like real estate investment trusts, stocks, bonds, and exchange traded funds. 20% is for cryptos however this is what I consider my 'play' money since cryptos are a very young market, that is based more on potential rather than value (you can't gauge the financial health of crypto using traditional tools like cashflow analysis or price/earnings ratios). I think cryptos are incredibly valuable but going all in especially with the inflated nature of bitcoin, would be dangerous for any of you, so I would suggest you diversify between traditional and cryptos. 2.) Reduce crypto risk by analyzing competitors to your alt coin. As I said before, do not overcompensate this diversification but bet for and against a crypto. In forex institutions use this tool to limit exposure to currency volatility. Imagine you go long GBP/USD, then you should naturally short GBP/CAD to a degree in order to limit exposure, but maximize growth potential. In the crypto world crypto pairs aren't really traded so they are illiquid markets, but I would suggest hedging a bit of stellar with XRP and even bitcoin. With this strategy I have been able to mitigate my losses from the recent stellar drop. Picture cryptos as a ranked list with the most valuable on top and the worst in the bottom. If BTC is on the top of your ranked list and XLM is in 3rd place but XRP is in 2nd place, then short XRP/BTC and go long XRP/XLM. I know these pairings don't all exist but it's to give you an idea how to think about the market. 3.) Support and resistance is important for technical analysis. The way you determine this is simply by seeing the area where past price action has not been able to surpass (resistance) or where past price action has not been able to drop below (support). Usually when a support or resistance level is tested multiple times it becomes stronger. However, there are ways to guess how breakouts are formed. See the chart below. https://imgur.com/u9r2e0c In the chart you have what is called accumulation. The price keeps testing the 400 resistance mark, making it a stronger barrier, however every dip in price is higher than the proceeding dip. This signals that there is a solid accumulation that will result in a break out. Just because a price level is tested multiple times does not mean there is a break out. You need to usually have such an accumulation phase (think of the imagery of stairs). In the same chart you can also see the price has not been able to really go below 400 because it is the new support level and the more it tests it, the stronger the barrier will become. 4.) Statistics has a fine way of helping us in our journey. My best friend is a mathematician and was able to offer advise on statistical trend setting. He stated that the longer the trend is set, the higher probability that it will keep going in that direction. Sounds obvious right? Well there is some truth to this but this goes right to my next point. 5.) For every second and moment you have a position open you increase your risk exponentially. This is why high frequency trading exists. So I am trying to offer a nuanced point that while trend continuation is statistically likely, so is the exponential increase of risk. These two last tips are particularly for leveraged traders. 6.) Be creative. Try to implement value investing criteria on cryptos in order to assess the true value of your chosen currency, whatever that may be. It can truly be difficult for ones like Bitcoin but for centralized cryptos like XRP and non profits like XLM it isn't too difficult. I saw an investor here requesting stellars financial statements and had a slight grin. That is the type of investor you should be. Vigilant, because more than making money, we should all be focusing on protecting money. Do not be greedy, because you will be susceptible to hot tips and emotion. Make 'preserving' your capital a priority. As long as you are gaining above inflation, all of you are winning. And now... 7.) Luck number 7! Anyway, buying on the dips is a great strategy, especially when it is testing a support or resistance zone that has been tested a bit before. Buying into a dip in a zone that has only been tested once is a bit risky. You want to see a form of sustainable accumulation. 8.) Do not simply invest in a crypto purely based on the dip. I will admit I have done this sometimes to an extent and it is okay. But the point of this post is to encourage you to do your homework and measure valuations, based on market volume, liquidity, technological announcements, and financial statements. The reason I sometimes partially ignore this is because I usually enter investments to hold at least 8 months -1 year minimum. 9.) Centralization and decentralization do not matter in crypto. I know XRP gets hate and I'd prefer stellar lumens, but that is not purely a reason to not invest in a currency. With centralization you get more compliance and regulatory oversight which marks higher security in investment. Cryptos are amazing, but with institutional involvement, this is an important case to make. 10.) Governments do not have conventional ways to regulate cryptos, but they do have tools to manipulate the market, so be attentive. All it takes is one major country to become heavily involved, in order to ensure a large price drop. 11.) DO NOT SHORT! I REPEAT DO NOT SHORT! Leave this to the professionals. Whereas with buying a currency you have a limited downward risk (you only have the risk to lose all your money), with shorting you effectively have no price floor to limit risk and exposure since the price theoretically has unlimited growth potential. If you decide to short stellar at 0.10 cents then you can lose all your investment and even be in debt (depends on leveraging), because the price can go anywhere from 0 cents to infinity. When you buy, you limit your risk to 0 cents which is where you lose all your money, but maximize growth potential which is technically infinite. This plays into the concept that the longer you have a position open, the greater the exponential risk. I hope you all enjoyed my guide. I am by no means an expert and am new to cryptos, however I've had associates involved for longer and friends that are also in finance (I worked in the back office of a private equity firm even though that wasn't glorious).
I'm doing a tribute to the 24 days of Christmas by going over the financial statements of 24 companies that are considered downrange, speculative, and just plain high risk. Our first six stops is fondly captured here. All opinions are my own, and certainly not a recommendation for or against any of them, or to buy or sell. Many are companies I've never looked at before. In some cases, I'd never even heard of them. I limited myself to 45mins to each, and kept mainly to most recent financial statements and MD&A's. You'll likely know more about the company than me if you're following them. This is only my reactions with a brief commentary about what I saw in the financial statements. LDS - Lifestyle Delivery Systems
Capital structure tastes like a 4 week old egg left on a counter. Not dissimilar within this peer set.
No fx hedging. Given forex losses equalled their gross margin…..well…..seriously. Think about that.
Good: Has revenue. Bad: Needs alot more revenue.
Relatively large spend on R&D
Cash flows to exec high relative to earnings
Capital cost is relative to peers. Still means expensive, but this seems around what it is at this stage of legal cannabis.
Curious that they front loaded share price volatility in option valuation. Haven’t seen that before. Good disclosure overall. I don’t like the sliding scale at all, but it’s not material
8.3MM long dated options - large potential trip wire in mid 2019. Most cash that can be has been wrung out
Warrants are a different story. 2018 is a big hill.
Thing feels a like an ATM for management to me. RTI - Radient Technologies
Cash poor, was able to get out of hock by paying in shares.
Issued more shares through November - crazy cheap to buyer. Large discount.
Warrants issued and outstanding very large.
Same with stock options
If their sales don’t take off soon, I put these guys at extreme risk.
They need 10x the revenue they have per month, like, next week.
More financing possible I guess. The market is paying $1.30 higher than what they’re selling shares for tho. Blech.
Of all I’ve looked at, I think this business model could work if they can wait until it actually generates revenue. Top heavy balance sheet needs concrete supports quick. TNY - Tinley Beverage Company
Why in the fuck is none of these outfits able to hedge forex exposure? Not one.
Same hideously expensive capital structure as others (note 8 & 9). Apr2018 important milestone.
Still intending and still developing. Still.
At least they had the cash to open a savings account
Note 10 - complicated. Really complicated.
Thank god, one of the shorter financials.
All sparkles and rainbows and hope. The only question is if there will be anyone who wants to buy what they make. Feedstock not well defined. Scalability a real concern. Suspect they’ll need a shit ton of money if they actually try to. Feels like campers. IMH - Invictus EDIT - Dec21 1100hrs Elves pulled a boner, covered wrong financial statements. Will be corrected after they come to later today. Replaced for now by...... iAn - Ianthus Capital Holdings
Structured financiers and bankers trying to make money off of cannabis.
Lots of contingencies nested in assets, from operations to regulatory. Risk hard to pin down and multi-faceted.
These guy’s hands haven’t touched dirt in their lives.
Cash burn is high, there are some assets being loaded, but strikes me as somewhat schizophrenic, seems constrained by what’s for sale rather than creating them.
Good disclosure on capital and optionality exposure. Not terribly impressed since that’s what these guys do for a living anyway
Related party transactions abound.
Despite decent reporting (a merciful 28 pages), it explains absolutely nothing to a business person. There’s a financial analyst out there somewhere that is drooling with their structuring.
I’d remind that analyst they’ve lost $7MM this year with another quarter to go.
Most complex financials of all so far that say the least.
A business built on excel spreadsheets by bankers for bankers. So many contingencies to revenue combined with jurisdictional uncertainty, this is simply a hedge fund. Short and mid-term operational exposure is extreme. CHV - Canada House Wellness Group Inc
Balance sheet is printed on rice paper, you can see through it if you hold it up to the light
Expenses are a cluster-fuck
I am getting a callous from reading auditor notes that include: “material uncertainties cast significant doubt about their ability to continue”. Many of these companies have it on page 1.
None of these outfits should need 30 pages of financial statements. This one has 45.
Clean disclosure on forex risk. Wish others did it. CHV does it, but on an amount that probably matches their spend on postage stamps for a decade. Immaterial.
Real problems in AP & AR. Heading for a wall.
Capital structure…..sigh. Not atypical, but this company is a great example of how capital costs impair a business. A case study for business students. Notes 2, 14, 15, and 16 should be required reading in business school.
I’m going to stop, because there’s many more to go, and there’s not much more to see here in terms of doing a high level look. This has been my favorite to do so far, because their disclosure is so good. I really like the idea of a focused, vertically integrated company too, but this company is a train wreck on paper. Whether this one can survive for another year…. EDIT UPDATE! Day after I posted this, CHV announced a $7MM convertible raise, spending 25% of it on paying debt and accounts payable. Expensive, and suggests ops aren't paying the bills. Not atypical in growth phases. Exceptionally good disclosure though. Of note, 60% of the stock is owned by only 2 investors and insiders. LIB - Liberty Leaf Holdings
One saves money on accounting costs if you don’t have any revenue to record and report.
If you need to call IR, the same guy is also the CEO and corporate secretary. Saves file size in your contacts list. Feels like a squatteopportunist though, not ops/business guy. Modest salary. Might be built as a pure flip.
Built in a $250k cash (not stock) payout for himself when he walks out the door.
Burnt $70k on a US folly for supply.
Note 12 on capital structure - similar rabbit warren to these others.
Accelerated capital structure - unlike long dates, balance sheet funding is largely compressed into 2018. This means they’d better get a licence, they’d better have production/inventory ready to go, and begin operating fast, channel ready.
Given they look only like a desk and a computer atm, significant operational risk over next 9 months.
Doesn’t look bad on paper. I’d gauge the risk on whether or not production can come in on time, what the facility actually looks like, and if they can get product sold mucho pronto. CEO has no history of anything connected to cannabis, only equity structures. Despite financial ‘health’, high risk Dive Bar goodness. Speculative is an understatement for this one. If IR can specifically address those three top things accurately, it offers focused regional cannabis exposure. Problem with that is the supply bubble potential in BC though. If they were in Manitoba….
I'm doing a tribute to the 24 days of Christmas by going over the financial statements of 24 companies that are considered downrange, speculative, and just plain high risk. Our first six stops is fondly captured here, the second one is here, and the third set is here. All opinions are my own, and certainly not a recommendation for or against any of them, or to buy or sell. Many are companies I've never looked at before. In some cases, I'd never even heard of them. I limited myself to 45mins to each, and kept mainly to most recent financial statements and MD&A's. You'll likely know more about the company than me if you're following them. This is only my reactions with a brief commentary about what I saw in the financial statements. IN - Inmed Pharmacuetical
Another pharma. Specifically leaves THC out of their scope
Relatively clean capital structure
Heavy IR expense, likely web development, brand build, props. Should look really good for that cash, shouldn’t be recurring
Lots of cheap optionality forward, matches dev cycle timeline.
Very specific applications, only two they’ve got on - a rare skin disease and glaucoma. - The former is probably chasing a high return, latter is the big one. Pain mgmt next, years away.
Exec pay heavy, seems typical.
Will need another raise in about 9 mos given cash burn. 28MM in stack, but few likely available to wring cash out of.
Spending consistent QoQ
Boring. Financials look relatively clean. Risk centres on whether their potential treatment for glaucoma is better than existing therapies. If you know any specializing clinical ophthalmologists, I’d ask them. Rare disease drugs usually are chasing high cost drugs paid for by public systems. Again, pharma isn’t my wheelhouse. But I have a high investor interest in the end use THC and CBD. Because I’m a commodity guy, that’s why. TGIF - Friday Night Inc.
Tried to start as booze outfit, looks like it flopped. Maybe just a buy in by someone, or they’re absorbing the losses from it slowly
Note 1 in financials sums up exposure to nation level risk. Earnings aren’t in Canada
32MM of cheap (cheap) warrants out there. Somebody hit a payday.
5 year $0.16 call options. Big payday as well.
The two previous items helps to describe the typical shitty capital structure of the sector. Positive is that these guys have earnings to help support.
Been building out for awhile, shows sophistication.
Not sure what $650k in ‘power equipment’ exactly is
Looks like they convert to CAD at the cash register level, no fx exposures. Nice change of pace from everyone else.
Blech to branding. If it was a car, it’d have flames painted on the sides and a naked chick shaped air freshener. Hard to pin the back story, there is one. Earnings are there, assets getting picked up, including land for expansion or grow. Diversifying a little, doesn’t look like they’re focusing on much but core business. Business risk is in competitive environment in Nevada and customer retention important - might be a gazillion of them there soon. I ran out of time trying to get my head around their story, store location(s) should reveal target market. Relatively straightforward financials, revenues will need to increase to support market cap and internal hurdle rate. Potential to move up a weight class with solid growth in earnings. ICC International Cannabis Corp
Restated financials for first 6 mos of 2017 - ugh. Not surprisingly.
Companies in Columbia, British Virgin Islands, sales to Mexico yada yada.
Unwinding multi-national’s financials sucks in mature industries, let alone those in expansion mode.
2 dozen Sedar filings past 45 days, multiple topics/filings. They’re going to need more server memory at Sedar
Capital structure typical, less busy than others in terms of # of transactions
Licensing costs will hit margins
Has land and buildings in/near production. More than a section of land (1 mile2 ) outdoor for hemp alone.
Bought $3MM greenhouse for cannabis.
Financial statements that report on operations in multiple jurisdictions are complex relative to a single one. ICC have assets, permits, but few sales to report. Logistics and movement of psychoactive substances across borders is not simple either. If one is looking to invest in something like this, best to have a really good handle on where the outfit is at, and how well it can execute. Way beyond the purposes of this crawl. All I can say has been said. MGW - Maple Leaf Green World
No license yet
No hedging of forex, what is up with this sector? $400k dumped, likely on unhedged capital commitments. Would’ve cost a few grand to have taken that out.
Does have cash. They’ve promised a 30,000 sq/ft up and running by Dec31st. Build appears to have been slow.
Expansion plans into BC and Nevada, early stages. JV in California. Ambitious.
Not alot of optionality in capital structure, but long dated. Same expensive stuff, lots less of it. Will likely be alot more of it soon given their ambition.
Cheap in operating so far, modest, looks focused on build out.
A civilized 14 pages.
Looks head down, ass up (that means working hard)
No downstream branding or licensing yet. A pure grower at this point, feels like it’ll stay that way.
Current cash won’t support all the hopes and dreams, will need alot more. Needs to monetize any production asap. Fair amount of shares out there. Will probably be back to markets/private placement shortly. Threat is that it’s late to the party. If they’re real and execute with precision, could be really something. That’s a definite positive. Too many in this space step over dollars to pick up nickels, this one looks austerely managed. Needs license pronto. VGW - Valens GroWorks
Pretty typical for the space and where they are at
Dedicated off take of product through Canopy
Pretty expensive mgmt at this stage relative to others
Not a ton of optionality in capital structure as of Aug. Starting to increase by transactions since.
Pricy lease, looks like they’re going to own the building or are upgrading. Not very large at 625kg/year. 38k sq/ft claimed expansion potential.
Extraction focused, has a lab as subsidiary
Couple of promises of expansion about Nanaimo & Columbia
Some sort of Arizona tie in, doesn’t look like anything other than a hobby
No update to corporate presence beyond initial roadshow and top heavy for size, at least in intro.
Pretty ‘family’ in nature through related payments and all. Looks fallow at the moment awaiting license upgrades. Not a very professional feel, looks splatter gun. Also looks to be getting there, but can't get a feel about ops. Still raising money. Potential, but could be hamstrung by lack of capacity. Throughput revenue on extraction would be sexy, but unknowns abound about capacity and planned operating end state. TRTC - TerraTech Corporation
Looks like peer of TGIF
No CDN financials, US:OTC market
Elves balked, started talking about resistance and power to the people.
If you heard about it here first, you are in the same sleigh as me.
Execution looks good in-stores. I know nothing else. Consider this one like a Christmas gift you have to assemble. That’s it. The elves are gassed again, and are looking for the rum I hid after their last fiasco. I'm thinking about giving it back to them, they've been filling shot glasses with the liquids left in the drink mats on the bar. I am grateful to have gotten this last one out of them. I attached several that were left out and reasons below - just to ensure you get all the Dive Bar goodies that are in the finger bowl. There isn’t much salt left on the peanuts though, the elves had licked it off before putting them back. Merry Christmas from us here. We might post a naughty and nice list out of the 24 looked at if the elves are willing.
GBLX - pharma-ish sorta-like. Infomercial feel. I have no clue about company.
DVA/LXX - primarily delivery technology
DOJA - too much change going on in current business combination for a quick look
CRZ - all over the map in geography and revenue stream exposure. Ultimately peripheral to value chain.
First off, let me state that I am not even close to a professional when it comes to trading. I got in a few months ago for passive income from copying 3.14fx and have come a long way since then, quadrupling my initial investment and losing half of it. I've watched traders such as cfdtrader, Lumyo, Robot, and crypto_chris lose several hundred percent after a fail from opening multiple positions. I got into 1broker to make money without monitoring it, but instead I learned a lot about trading and risk management, even profiting off several of my own trades. It's a valuable experience in itself even if you're not profiting and I wouldn't give it up for anything. If these losses are enough to make you quit, so be it. Investing comes with risks that some people can't handle. It's not free money. https://www.dailyfx.com/calendar is the economic calendar that I use while trading. High importance events can easily trigger a 80% loss or gain depending on the direction you choose. It's highly risky to trade when someone of great importance such as Draghi or Yellen are speaking. Even if you follow a general MAX 5% rule, you will still lose up to 16% of your account if somebody opens 4 of the same positions and they stop at 80%. Making back money is also tougher than losing it, as once you lose 16% of your account, 5% of your account is a lot less than before. Therefore, you have less capital per trade. Also, be careful when changing your copy amount. I often see copiers saying things like "Great work, I'm upping my copy amount" and "Increased copy amount from x to x". In my opinion, increasing a copy amount should only be done when your initial amount is already low. Losses on a higher copy amount may wipe out the gains on a smaller copy amount. (-50% loss with 0.1 btc = +100% gains with 0.05 btc) Always stick to a 5% max rule unless you're feeling risky. Then, there comes the gambling/greed phase that many new copiers often do. (Guilty of this myself). After extreme success, a copier may feel the need to upgrade their copy reward to maximize profit. Or after extreme failure, a copier may feel they need to upgrade their copy reward to make up for losses. All of these are mistakes. 1broker is not filled with market professionals. Most of us here are either self taught or complete novices. Professionals would not be sharing their trades for about $70-80 for each trade (at best). They won't be asking for copiers on other traders' profiles. They won't be using a Pikachu as their profile picture. They won't be using a broker that isn't heavily regulated and insured. They would be using their own capital to make millions off of trades. Remember, any newbie can easily accumulate winning trades by gambling with high leverage. As long as they have around $1300 as of now, they can easily create a profile that suggests that they are a professional, when in reality they are entering at random points and exiting when a position turns into profit, rather than using technical analysis and watching economic calendars. And even the best of traders will have their ups and downs. I've stuck with 3.14FX even when he reached -100% this month because he's had a great history on this site. I feel that he can make the money that he loses back. And even though he has doubled up on a position yesterday (not sure why, probably was extremely confident), it was a success. Can you really trust anyone? No way! Unlike regular trading, 1broker is more unregulated. Signing up requires no personal information so any user with malicious intent can build up a steady reputation and perform an exit scam (or have a massive failure) without any reparations. Robot has no link to any social media or anything in his profile. For all we know, he could own another account that has -100%, and he is depending on luck while opening multiple positions to accumulate followers. (I just used Robot as an example, my intent is not to accuse him of multiple accounts) Then there are potential exit scams (from a trader, not 1broker itself) that will drain a decent portion of your account. There's a reason why you have a choice to choose how many trades maximum you can copy per day. This hasn't happened yet, but it will definitely happen in the foreseeable future. Somebody will set up an order for 50 shorts and 50 longs and set the take profit and stop loss the opposite of each other. Then after closing, they'll withdraw their bitcoin never to be heard of again. When you put your trust in a trader, you should trust them to carefully monitor a trade. Unfortunately, there's currently no way to tell if your copied trader is online or not, so you'll never know if they're in a coma and won't be back for another 6 months. My suggestion is to either take profit when you think that the conditions are correct or just trust the trader. Nobody can see the future. If you think that you'll rather close the trade before the weekend, it's your choice. If you think upcoming news will destroy the trade, feel free to close early. However, be prepared for regret if it goes up, or a great feeling that you dodged a bullet if it goes down. It's all a part of trading. 1broker's copy system is seriously flawed at the moment. Of course, there's no easy way to fix it. Why would a great trader want to share one of their trades if they're not getting much out of it? This encourages opening multiple positions to maximize copy rewards, which can result in massive losses. Robot is one of the traders exploiting this. So how can you prevent massive losses? There's really no way. You're putting your trust in random people without an identity, who can easily be a scammer. When it comes to people like Robot, I put 1-2% of my funds because I know that he opens multiple positions. This is why I'm always sticking with 3.14FX, he established himself a long time ago and he knows what he is doing. Somebody who has been on the platform for over 3 years with several losses is preferable to an anonymous newcomer who just registered but appears to be good at trading. Also, the percentage on 1broker is misleading. You may think "Wow, I'm going to get an 500% of my initial investment if I copy Lumyo!" In reality, you should only be using 5% max of your capital per trade. If you copied him from the beginning (I started copying at around 90%), you should have only gained 25% rather than 500%. But still, 25% of your initial investment is huge.
My opinion on several traders
vits2015: If you watched vits2015 from the beginning, you would know that their style of trading is... off. 15 positions on UK100, all short, some of them at -30% when I first saw him as a successful trader. What does that tell me about him? He can open up to 6 positions on the same trade at once, and is willing to hold them as long as possible to get a profit. (Average holding time 8 days) gtfann: Even with recent losses, he still appears to be a decent trader. It seems that he upped his usual leverage due to the crowds of traders flocking to copy him though. Multiple positions with a lower leverage isn't really something that I like either, but I'm sticking with him for now until there's a drastic change. vaiono: He lets his losses play out and even though he has a decent track record,it's still risky to play with. Silver is extremely volatile and due to leverage, a small move in any direction can either be a huge loss or huge gain. Snortex: Pretty much a meme on 1broker. He acknowledges his trading style and warns his copiers. I like him as a person due to his warnings, but still wouldn't recommend copying him unless you can afford to lose a lot. Edit: After examination of his trades, I feel like he's not only gambling like his description suggests. His entries are planned out carefully (Although that has hurt him when there was a flash crash). You'll take several 80% losses but you may take several 400% gains. He seems to have a habit of chasing a trade, which can lead to multiple 80% losses. However, once the trend reverses, his profits go through the roof. When you're copying, copy for the long term! Of course, feel free to uncopy if you feel that the bottom is still far away. noIDea: He has had bad stretches in the past, but still makes his way back. I think he's a good trader and even though he opens multiple positions, he's one of the best at setting stop losses so the risk is not as high as others who open multiple trades. Gold_Gangsta: Name change from Crypto Chris for some reason? Be wary of multiple positions as the USDJPY fiasco shows. Seems to be doing fairly well with gold as of now. 1monk2: Multiple positions fairly often, even says that he's drunk in the description. This is gambling. knightlife999: The description definitely shows promise. There is no proof to those claims on the site, but I feel it's safe to allocate some of your funds toward copying him with his track record. HedgeCryFx Risk 5: Decent trader, pays attention to economic calendar as well. The only problem is that he lets losses play out to 80% boogi: I would be wary about the higher losses, but then again, there's a good track record. sergiomc: Seems to be decent at trading stocks. With an average holding time of 14 days and leverage of 10, you should be expecting to lose about ~3.92% of your gains to financing, which is not actually that much. Cool Hand Luke: Low leverage trading. If you were to copy him, I would recommend only using 1% or 2% of your account max per trade if you plan on copying others as well. He's a great trader for slow steady gains, but if you're looking to get rich fast or go broke trying, this is not the guy for you. eylemc: Quick trades with minimal profit and no losses so far. As of now, it may be too early to judge, but I think that he's somebody that might be worth copying. Edit: Seems to let losses play out to 80%. Be wary. 3.14fx: Back in the game, doing well with stocks and USDJPY recently. High leverage, but usually stops losses within a reasonable range. SunnyNet: Small gains, huge losses. Be wary as your first copied trade could easily be a -80%. SatoshiReport: Trading using a neural network, after looking deep into the trade history, I'm not so sure about it. Correct me if I am wrong, but the bot doesn't take into account important news and events. Edit: This bot has too many flaws to continue copying in my opinion. Even with the previous gains, it opens the same position as soon as one closes, negating the 33% stop loss AND forcing a loss due to the spread. The only thing that keeps it out of the negative is the rare 80% gains that you might find once in a while. CryptoMessiah: The image being shown on his twitter has weird numbers on it (USDJPY at 100-103 in the matter of minutes), I think it's a simulator so it isn't actually "proved". Also, asking people to copy for "free money" is misleading as anything can go wrong in the forex market, there is no guaranteed money. I copied with a minimum 0.001 btc and will update this post if the bot proves to be successful. Edit: Tons of losses trying to get the right direction and then huge wins. I would say it's ok, but you're better off with a human capitalizing on gains. The only advantage to this bot is 24/7 hour trading. kosanet: His description says it all. Be careful while copying, but don't be discouraged to place an amount you can afford to lose. He seems to have a great history of monitoring losses (positions never get below 20%) but it's still a new profile who clearly states that he's not a pro. May open multiple trades and trading with USDJPY a lot. His scalping strategy means that overnight fees won't be an issue. Edit: Now he's starting to be a little more risky with his trades as more copiers arrive. Be careful, he never reached liquidation at 80% yet but he could at any moment. google: A bit late to the party, but what can I say? I honestly can't believe he accumulated 190 copiers but he seems to have faded out quickly. Golgo13 is having a fun time on all of his trades KillerWhale: Extremely high risk with all of those multiple positions. Like google and robot, don't be fooled by performance recently and look through their whole account. People who saw the 220% recently may have missed when he was in -475% a few days ago. SoontobeWW3: Great trader in my opinion. However, I think emotion plays a role in his trading as every huge loss is often followed by more. APPoh: Seems to know what he's doing. However, there is a very short trading history and we're never sure. Positions can reach 50% without closing, so it's very possible that he might let losses play out to 80%. dingo: Not much to say. Good with 1 position at a time, and even with the 80% loss last month, still ended in profit. Be careful as he might sometimes not stop a position and instead wait for it to recover and a 80% loss is huge compared to his gains. Edit August 12: Will stop adding new traders now. Before copying someone, remember:
Check their trading history, ALL OF IT. You're entrusting them with your money, you should be 100% sure.
Wait until they've established themselves. Sure, you can be frustrated about potentially losing 200% profit, but it sure beats 700% losses.
I already expressed my views on Robot and 3.14FX above. Lumyo is currently inactive. Last tip: Don't uncopy people if you feel like they can make it back. If you choose to copy someone, you're in it for the long run. Now this may contradict some of my earlier statements, but if you have somebody that you believe in, don't uncopy them after a loss. Eventually, they will make their way back up and after you see their success again, you'll be tempted to copy again. Of course, if you are copying somebody who you have no faith in, feel free to drop them. Cutting your losses short is important to learn in trading.
Question career path Post Bachelor Job - Investment Analyst
Hello everyone, I need some help and have some questions for some of you who are experienced working in a Mutual fund, or Hedge fund. I want to work in San Francisco, I live about 2 hours away. Just some general background info on me: I am a double major, I majored in accounting first, than got a second Degree in Finance. My GPA really lagged due to working 40 hours a week. I have 1 semester left after the current semester in school, but I no longer work and havent worked since 1/10/15. 2.65 Current GPA, and I have 10 Classes left, I think I will graduate with a 2.8. I have been into the Stock Market since I was 19, I am now 23, so I have 4 years of trading/research knowledge. I have succesfully made money on forex trading(Bitcoins, GBPUSD, USDJPY) As well as SCTY, TWTR, and FB and few others. went from about 10K to about 45K. I am very smart when it comes to the market. I read ALOT, because I understand reading is knowledge. Also I have day trading expierence Using Level 2 access. I also am pretty good with excel when it comes to the formulas for yields, bonds, bills, vlookup ect. I also am very good in Accounting as I got my first degree in it. I can read and comprehend Fincial Statements. I know All journal entries including advanced accounting entries like vested stock, consolidation, loss tax Carry forwards etc. Anyways, So my GPA lagged because I worked at Wells Fargo as a teller and banker for a little less than 3 Years, worked 40 hrs a week. My first year after transfering to my university, I got 3 ds, and 6 Cs. And yeah I know I regret it. My last 5 classes I got an A B B B C, and This semester I expect A A B B B Dont know if this matters, but I am really trying, I am way smarter than my GPA states, at age 21 I didnt manage my time well, I put all my effort in Wells Fargo rsther than school and that was a mistake. I had great sales expierence from WF. I want to get a job as a research analyst with a Fund. I will be taking the level 1 CFA Exam next year. Will this put me on a career path of running my own fund in the future? Also was thinking of doing my MBA when I turn 30, so Ill have about 6 years of Work Exp. A few questions: Does working at Wells Fargo help me get a job at a Fund? The reason I ask is because I have not worked for over a year. Will passing the lvl 1 CFA help me get into a fund? I know they will look at me as a student, I dont want to get denied because of my GPA. if you could answer just these few questions I would Really appreciate it!
If you woke up to find the FOREX market on chaos, welcome to Tuesday! The Swiss stepped up, devaluing their currency to keep up with the rest of the planet in the race to the bottom. ZeroHedge sums it up nicely: A few other points to make: 1) Big Swiss exporters like Novartis and Nestle are dancing a jig right now as this will surely boost their sales in the short-term. Also, banks in Switzerland and Austria who had heavy exposure to Eastern Europe are breathing a sigh of relief right now. You see, Swiss interest rates have traditionally been lower than in Europe’s emerging economies. For example, many Hungarians took out mortgage loans in Swiss francs because the borrowing rate was so much cheaper. Once the Swiss franc began to rise, however, borrowers had a difficult time paying back the loan; suddenly their mortgage payment and balance were much higher than before, and default rates soared. Banks in Austria, Germany, and Switzerland who wrote most of the loans were sitting on huge potential losses… and this destruction to the financial system has been mitigated thanks to today’s move. I have to imagine this had some influence in the decision. 2) For all the talk of a pullback in gold, this is only further reason for a rise in precious metals. It’s true that nothing goes up (or down) in a straight line, but given that the world just lost nearly its last remaining safe haven currency, there are few other asset classes to turn to. 3) Markets are not functioning properly. Competitive devaluation means that governments are all striving to out-print each other… Europe is printing as much as they can to bail out the PIIGS, Switzerland just signed up to join then, Japan and China are not far behind, and QE3 is set to launch soon in America. With so much money sloshing around the financial system, there is absolutely no sense of value anymore; people cannot invest with confidence given all the massive bureaucratic intervention. 4) In the Swiss National Bank’s brief statement, they said “With immediate effect, [the SNB] will no longer tolerate a EUCHF exchange rate below the minimum rate of CHF 1.20. The SNB will enforce this minimum rate with the utmost determination and is prepared to buy foreign currency in unlimited quantities.” The three key words here are ‘WITH IMMEDIATE EFFECT’. This is just another example of a government making instant changes that pose dramatic risk over people’s lives and livelihoods. Make no mistake, we can all wake up tomorrow to a new reality.
Hello everyone, I need some help and have some questions for some of you who are experienced working in a Mutual fund, or Hedge fund. I want to work in San Francisco, I live about 2 hours away. Just some general background info on me: I am a double major, I majored in accounting first, than got a second Degree in Finance. My GPA really lagged due to working 40 hours a week. I have 1 semester left after the current semester in school, but I no longer work and havent worked since 1/10/15. 2.65 Current GPA, and I have 10 Classes left, I think I will graduate with a 2.8. I have been into the Stock Market since I was 19, I am now 23, so I have 4 years of trading/research knowledge. I have succesfully made money on forex trading(Bitcoins, GBPUSD, USDJPY) As well as SCTY, TWTR, and FB and few others. went from about 10K to about 45K. I am very smart when it comes to the market. I read ALOT, because I understand reading is knowledge. Also I have day trading expierence Using Level 2 access. I also am pretty good with excel when it comes to the formulas for yields, bonds, bills, vlookup ect. I also am very good in Accounting as I got my first degree in it. I can read and comprehend Fincial Statements. I know All journal entries including advanced accounting entries like vested stock, consolidation, loss tax Carry forwards etc. Anyways, So my GPA lagged because I worked at Wells Fargo as a teller and banker for a little less than 3 Years, worked 40 hrs a week. My first year after transfering to my university, I got 3 ds, and 6 Cs. And yeah I know I regret it. My last 5 classes I got an A B B B C, and This semester I expect A A B B B Dont know if this matters, but I am really trying, I am way smarter than my GPA states, at age 21 I didnt manage my time well, I put all my effort in Wells Fargo rsther than school and that was a mistake. I have expierence in sales from Wells Fargo. I want to get a job as a research analyst with a Fund. I will be taking the level 1 CFA Exam next year. Will this put me on a career path of running my own fund in the future? Also was thinking of doing my MBA when I turn 30, so Ill have about 6 years of Work Exp. A few more questions: Would working at Wells Fargo almost 2 years ago help me get a job at a Fund? My career advisor councelor at school told me it no longer matters and it is irrelvant? Will passing the lvl 1 CFA help me get a career opportunity at a fund? if you could answer just these few questions I would Really appreciate it!
Binary Assassin Review Is BinaryAssassin.co Scam Or Not? - Binary Assassin Review Is Binary Assassin A Scam Or Legit?
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hedge forex positions with no loss discussion - page 6 Sign In. Home . News; Economic Calendar ... You will be a lot safer in a hedge formation than in a normal 1 pair trade of the same pair that has a huge spread in Forex... With hedging, it is true that you make small profits, but the upside is lower risk in the market. Quote Message Report. See my profile or message me for my latest EA ... Playing with hedging without adequate trading experience could reduce your account balance to zero in no time at all. The Balance does not provide tax, investment, or financial services and advice. The information is being presented without consideration of the investment objectives, risk tolerance, or financial circumstances of any specific investor and might not be suitable for all investors. The Biggest Benefit and Drawback of Hedging in Forex Trading. If you are considering using my Forex hedging strategy in your trading arsenal, then you need to understand what you are getting into. Regardless of what you have read before, there is no such thing as a “sure-fire” way to profit with hedging. There are no free lunches in trading. Teknik Hedging, yaitu suatu teknik trading yang memanfaatkan locking posisi , ... Forex No Loss says: December 20, 2016 at 4:13 am jika trading di broker yang nggak beres pasti begitu ujung2nya, repot. oleh karena itu kita nggak mau pakai broker ecek2 , bahaya. tidak ada jalan keluar kalau sudah begitu Pak . Loading... Reply. joe0215 says: December 28, 2016 at 1:41 am brokernya apa gan yg di ... No doubt many of you have heard about Hedging in Forex; and that it can be useful to reduce losses or recover positions, or lock in profit of main position. I have done research about it in the past; but I have come to conclusion that hedging is a myth. It is simply applying a stop loss to your position in a different way. This thread is to discuss hedging. All comments, critics, pros, cons ... That is the whole point of hedging in forex — smaller profits with no losers. We can, of course, bolster profits by increasing the size of trades. Example #2: Commodity Pairs. A second example is the hedging strategy between the correlating commodity currencies AUD and NZD. On the weekly charts of these two currencies against the USD below we ... Description: Hedging Repair System using simple forex hedging strategy involving opening the opposing position to a current trade. Also using ultiple currencies forex hedging strategy. Another common FX hedging strategy involves selecting two currency pairs that are positively correlated, such as GBP/USD and EUR/USD, and then taking positions ... So to prove the statement above, I've coded an EA that is using "back-and-forth" hedging mechanism (it's NOT a martingale system), which I'll explain in the pdf manual. This trading technique is probably not new and maybe it is also discussed many times on this forum. However, I couldn't find any EA for it so I've coded my own. Are there no loss Forex hedging strategies and techniques where you can take positions with the intention of achieving profit, but also mitigating your risk simultaneously? While it's not truly possible to remove all risk, the answer is yes. There is a vast number of different Forex hedging strategies that aim to do this to varying degrees. The real trick of any Forex hedging technique and ... "Is it possible to design a recovery system that is using a smart hedging mechanism able to "beat" the forex market? - and also your broker " Apparently and surprisingly the answer to that question is YES*. (*= of course only under certain conditions) So to prove the statement above, I've coded an EA that is using "back-and-forth" hedging mechanism (it's NOT a martingale system), which I'll ...
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